Paper from the Lancet (HERE) put the number of infected at around 20x official reports and pegged the mortality rate near 3% (though this value has a high degree of uncertainty).
Night now, Wuhan has 22,112 official cases [(source). If the Lancet article is right, that converts to approximately 442,000 real cases.
(442,000) X (3% mortality) = ~13,000
More context for those who haven’t been following, that I’ve stolen from below
Total SARS deaths was 774, while 2019-nCoV has officially taken 723 as of today. While SARS likely has a much higher mortality rate, take a look at the [graphical comparison of their case counts](Source) (hasn’t been updated in a while, total hit 34,800 today). The scale of the infections has already grown far higher than in 2003, requiring more significant mitigation measures needed to stem the spread. Right now it’s still fairly exponential, though hopefully slowing… official numbers have it 3,500 new cases today, 3,200 yesterday. Unfortunately 2019-nCoV will be nearly an order of magnitude more infected (again, by dubiously low official numbers) by middle of next week, at which time it’ll be adding as many new infected a day as SARS did total.
Alternative theory: They could be culling chickens infected with H5N1 or disposing of chickens that starved to due to an inability to ship in feed. There are 348 million chickens in Hubei. There is easily enough chickens to create those SO2 numbers. Chinese farms have culled livestock with fire in the past. There is video of Chinese farmers setting live pig on fire then burying them during the swine flu epidemic.
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